December 2020 Market Update

December 2020 Market Update

I hope everyone had a fantastic Thanksgiving Weekend. The market is still moving higher. Also, a great commentary from Michael Orr about comparing 2020 with 2004-2006.

We have been short of supply since 2015 and the situation has become steadily more severe. There are just not enough homes to buy for people who want them. Millennials who continued to rent long after earlier generations are now anxious to get their foot on the ladder. Investors are back in volume having taken a pause during the second quarter. However, unlike in 2004, investors remain a relatively small part of the demand. Most of the people buying homes are doing so because they want a primary residence.

December 2020 Market Update_cromford update

During October the intended use for single-family and condo/townhouse properties in Maricopa and Pinal counties was as follows:

1. Owner-occupied primary residence – 77.3%
2. Investment – 12.2%
3. Owner-occupied secondary residence – 8.6%
4. iBuyer for re-sale – 1.6%
5. Unknown – 0.3%

People who are worrying about mortgage delinquency rates should remember that foreclosures did NOT create the huge excess supply of 2006. The excess supply arrived 2 years before the foreclosures started in earnest. When the bank owned homes hit the market, it was already dreadfully over-supplied, so their prices dropped sharply. If we saw a new wave of distressed homes right now, they would be soaked up very quickly by eager buyers and prices would continue to rise.

It would help move the market back to a more normal balance, so prices would rise at a more moderate pace. Most distressed homes would be unlikely to get to foreclosure because almost all of them have substantial owner equity and can be marketed as normal sales, or at worst pre-foreclosures, not short sales (which can often be tricky to close).

The current situation is very different from 2004 or 2005. Then a large number of newly built homes had been purchased by investors with 100% loans and were lying unoccupied with no tenants interested in renting them, despite record low rental rates. Many other homes had been purchased by owner-occupiers on fraudulent loan applications, who never even made the first monthly loan payment, living in their new home for free with minimal money down.

Loan fraud was rampant in 2005 and 2006, largely driven by the mortgage industry itself rather than the borrowers. Wall Street firms (like Lehman Brothers) demanded mortgages to chop up and sell as securities and mortgage brokers could not supply enough without resorting to abnormal practices focused mainly on sub-prime loans. Remember Countrywide and Washington Mutual? Stated income loans? No documentation loans?

I repeat – 2020 is nothing like 2005. The 2020 housing market is not abnormally pumped with artificial credit, just starved of supply. Forecasting the future is extremely difficult, but drawing parallels with 2005-2008 is not helpful, nor is it logically appropriate.

by Michael Orr – Cromford Report

318 E Tuckey Ln, Phoenix, AZ 85012

318 E Tuckey Ln, Phoenix, AZ 85012

318 E. Tuckey Ln, Phoenix, AZ 85012

Modern Beauty in this Sprawling Central Phoenix Home

318 E. Tuckey Ln, Phoenix, AZ 85012

5 Beds | 5 Bath | 5,135 Sq. Ft. | $1,690,000
Blessed with one of the hottest locations in Phoenix, this stunning contemporary remodel exudes a very elegant yet luxuriously laidback vibe from its setting on a half-acre lot near Central Avenue and Glendale Avenue.

318 E. Tuckey Ln, Phoenix, AZ 85012

5 BEDS

5 BATHS

5,135 SQ. FT.

POOL

3 Car garage

318 E. Tuckey Ln, Phoenix, AZ 85012

5 Beds | 5 Bath | 5,135 Sq. Ft. | $1,790,000

FEATURES

SPACIOUS & GORGEOUS

Upon arrival, prepare to be impressed by the shaded fire-pit courtyard entry, lush front lawn, and sophisticated architecture. A step across the threshold reveals gorgeous gathering spaces graced with volume windows that dapple the wide-planked floors with natural light.

318 E. Tuckey Ln, Phoenix, AZ 85012
318 E. Tuckey Ln, Phoenix, AZ 85012

Updated Features Everywhere

Deeper in the heart of the bright and open floor plan, the sleek chic kitchen awaits your culinary pleasure; indeed, this gourmet area boasts a bevy of high-end appointments from Wolf and ASKO including a chef-pleasing gas cooktop, two dishwashers, beautiful quartz counters and a walk-in pantry with a hidden door.

YOUR BACKYARD OASIS

 Meanwhile, the secluded owner’s retreat is flattered by an ultra-spacious bedroom, a generously sized dressing closet (with plenty of wardrobe storage options) and a spa-like private bath with dual sinks with back-lit mirrors. In addition to a crystal-clear waterfall pool, alfresco amenities include an expansive poolside patio, children’s play area, grassy-green lawn, barbecue island and a kiva fireplace surrounded by built-in seating. Also: game room-billiards parlor with beverage bar; library-office with built-ins; three-car extended-length garage with attached cabinets.

318 E. Tuckey Ln, Phoenix, AZ 85012

Call for a private showing

All showings are private and focused on viewers comfort and safety.

Contact us for more info

John Angelo
john@theangelogroup.com
602-616-1455

Amy Angelo
amy@theangelogroup.com
602-790-8284

16602 N 25th St #218, Phoenix, AZ 85032

16602 N 25th St #218, Phoenix, AZ 85032

16602 N 25th St #218, Phoenix, AZ 85032

3 Beds | 2 Baths | 1,136 SQ FT | $164,900

RARE 3 bedroom, 2 bath unit in Autumn Park. This unit was recently refreshed with new carpet, paint and blinds…it’s totally ready to go! Refrigerator, Euro Washer/Dryer STAY! Oversized Master bedroom with private bath and walk-in closet * Spacious secondary bedrooms as well * This end-unit is just shy of 1200 square feet and feels much larger * Fantastic heavily shaded private balcony * Community pool and laundry as well! Children’s play area and plenty of parking too * Close to shops, freeways and hiking!

Call for more information or a private showing:  (602) 616-1455

11618 N 30th Ave, Phoenix, AZ 85029

11618 N 30th Ave, Phoenix, AZ 85029

11618 N 30th Ave, Phoenix, AZ 85029

3 Beds | 2 Bath | 1,730 Sq. Ft. | $286,900

Step into this beautiful, super clean home w/tile floors and fresh paint. Kitchen has granite counter-tops, white cabinetry and stainless steel appliances. High ceilings, natural light, real wood burning fireplace and open living space make this home feels much larger. Gorgeous tiled shower surrounds and granite in both bathrooms. Master has dual sinks, oversized shower, walk-in closet and access to the back patio and yard. Stylish contemporary details throughout w/wonderful new exterior paint in 2016 and roof in 2020. Great lake subdivision with tennis court, pool and wonderful green spaces. Just what you’ve been looking for!

Call for more information or a private showing:  (602) 616-1455